What does the entertainment landscape look like in 2024?
Alex is the Managing Director of major UK talent agency InterTalent. He represents his clients alongside overseeing the agency's creative strategy, day-to-day operations & acquisitions.
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🤔 What does the entertainment landscape look like in 2024?
Welcome to the first of the year. The holidays feel so long ago already and The Traitors has already been and gone. Given the rollercoaster of an industry that we’re in we’ve wasted no time in seeking out new opportunities for our talent, taken a huge amount of meetings with our buyers and sat down with clients to plan new strategies.
2023 was difficult. The Strikes and Ad Funding downturn caused huge shifts in strategy and ripped up everyone’s P&L. With commissions cancelled or postponed and shows on pause, it was a game of who could pivot first and where you could make money.
‘What do you think is going to happen this year?’ is a question we are asking everyone. The answers are varied depending on the world that person works in. Some are hugely concerned, others are excited. We’ve had so many conversations about the next 12 months that we already have a strong grasp as to what this year is going to look like for our clients, which in turn allows us to have enough intel to plot and plan the strongest route forward for each individual.
Today, I’m going to lay out my (bitesize) thoughts on what the entertainment industry will bring in 2024.
Let’s go! ⬇️
✅ Terrestrial TV: Some channels are coping better than others but after the worst ad funding downturn for 15 years, channels are seriously struggling to make new programming. Shows are being cancelled or postponed and new opportunities will be far and few between. 2023 was bad, the worst it’s been for over a decade, but everyone said 2024 should be better. Truthfully, it’s not looking that way. According to The Ankler this week, the new mantra inside channel buildings is ‘Survive til 25’. Even that’s not a definite but it has to be the hope. Given the way we now consume TV, I’m not convinced that it’ll ever return to ‘normal’ BUT Terrestrial TV will move forward, it’s not going anywhere just yet, and as long as we can get to a point of increased opportunities and, in turn, more employment then we will grab it with both hands. Until then, we have to fight for every possibility. Some brand-funded projects, international co-productions and quick/cheaper one-off’s are what will cut through in 2024. I’m intrigued by the launch of Freely in Q2, basically a streaming version of Freeview. I have no idea if this will mean an awful lot to anyone, but I’m looking forward to seeing what the added value to UK content might be. Over on digital; channels like Sky Max, Sky History & W will continue to push forward with great projects that cut through as often as funding (inside and out) allows. The slither of hope, of course, is seeing The Traitors light up the entire country at 9pm 3 nights a week. Linear TV is not dead when a format grabs the nation. TV is alive, it’s just nowhere near what it once was. So what does this all mean for the…
✅ Streamers: Well, not great either. For years there has been the talk of who is winning the streaming wars. The truth is, no one is even remotely close to Netflix’s subscriber numbers or income and in 2024 the gap is set to widen. Buying the WWE’s media rights for $10bn was a mega move that catapults their offering to even higher levels. It hits a sweet spot for them and takes them into live broadcasting at a time when they’re about to introduce ads. Suddenly streaming is going linear! Whether it’s true crime docs, bingeable reality TV or edge-of-your-seat sports docs, Netflix hits every top genre harder than everyone else. The issue for me is that they don’t often use UK talent to front their original content unless it’s for elite-level doc access (Beckham) or a gripping drama (Fool Me Once). Bear Grylls hosting a new celeb competition show might kickstart a new trend that’ll be most welcome. The others are seriously struggling due to the cost of living crisis (how many platforms can someone afford?) and without huge subscriber numbers, there is nowhere near as much UK original content. Paramount+ is cutting jobs. Lionsgate+ is shutting its doors. AppleTV is struggling for eyeballs as are Amazon Prime who will be inserting ads to gain additional revenue. That being said, while there aren’t many opportunities for UK talent, the shows they do make here are often excellent and a real opportunity if you can grab them. We love making shows with them. Apple TV still has the biggest streaming show in the world in Ted Lasso (very much British), and Disney+ had one of the best docs of 2023 with Spencer Matthews and his trip to Everest. I’m thrilled to say that a show of ours, Vinnie Jones: In The Country, was a major success for Discovery+. Discovery and Disney are places of real quality. What will we get this year? More of the same. Relatively few UK originals but exciting possibilities for those ideas that can cut through, so the fight is on for us to make sure it’s an InterTalent name at the helm. But as to who is Netflix’s biggest competition in 2024?
✅ Digital: Youtube. YouTube made more revenue than Netflix in its last quarter earnings. Viewing of YouTube content via TV screens now averages 1 Billion hours a day. For those who don’t engage, I think it’s time everyone started looking at it seriously as a broadcaster. Yes, the path to financial success through the YouTube Partnership Programme isn’t simple but given how we have been consuming content over the past 5 years, Youtube has to be a big consideration for the talent who are struggling to navigate TV. In terms of TikTok & Instagram - they will remain unstoppable. Some of the most exciting new talent emerge from these platforms, creating the best and most engaging content and brands are not going to stop spending money here. The global social media advertising market is expected to reach over $200 billion this year. A HubSpot research found that 61% of brands that engaged in social marketing last year saw revenue growth. While other advertising avenues are weakening, digital-first content creation is flying and talent is at the heart of it. It’s serious business and we are focusing a lot of time, effort and money in this direction.
✅ Books: The book industry is currently undergoing its own significant transformation. Footfall in supermarkets and independent bookshops is down. People just aren’t buying as many books. The quantity of book sales needed to make the Sunday Times Bestseller list is so much lower than it was 5-10 years ago. Timing is everything though and while the buying of physical books is precarious (as are ebooks), Audible’s massive audiobook business remains strong and Spotify recently launched its premium audiobook service which is a game-changer. What does this mean for talent who want to seal a book deal in 2024? Quite simply, publishers are looking for proposals that are multi-platform. It has to be equally appealing in physical form as it is through your phone and into your ears.
✅ Podcasts: Podcasts continue to excite and confuse in equal measure. I don’t see 2024 being any different. It’s still an incredible way to broadcast. It’s always exciting when your favourite pod drops its latest episode and there’s something classy about having a successful podcast given how hard it is to cut through. The difficulty is making money from them. Passion projects that make no money are a thing of the past. It’s only worth pursuing a new podcast this year if there’s a clear way to monetise whether that’s through brand sponsorship, ancillary revenues such as tours and merch or getting snapped up by one of the big players that will pay for the pleasure. Uncloaked, the popular visualised podcast for The Traitors that was released simultaneously on BBC2 and BBC Sounds, will almost certainly open the doors for more multi-format spin-off shows which can be funded via multiple sources.
✅ Drama: What a difficult 4 years it’s been for the scripted community. Covid was horrific… and then just as normality had somewhat resumed, last year’s strikes in Hollywood lasted so long that it will take years to recover. While the fight for stronger protection was hugely important, the industry isn’t flying out of the blocks. 2024 will be a very conservative re-emergence. In the UK, spending on drama was down 35%. It’s taken a big hit and I don’t see a huge turnaround this year. It’s tough out there, and we’ll notice a decline in the amount of new dramas on our screens this year but we have to hold strong. The UK’s scripted market remains one of our greatest creative exports around the world and a comeback is inevitable, it’ll just take time. Many Hollywood projects film out of UK studios, which is crucial, including the highest-grossing film of last year, Barbie, which was shot in Hertfordshire. Cuts to arts funding by local councils are severely damaging the UK theatre scene but those who can get their shows up on stage are doing incredible jobs and after Covid it continues to be a real joy to see great theatre. Theatre is very important to us. Long-running soaps are always much needed and we will still get some incredible new TV dramas. We might not get a lot of quantity this year but as Mr Bates v The Post Office proves the calibre isn’t going anywhere.
✅ Brand Partnerships: It’s a multi-billion dollar industry. Simple as. But what will the trends of 2024 be? Creators with niche content are 10x more in demand than those with generic content. Niche creators that utilise a repeatable format perform the highest and grow engagement. I suspect more mainstream talent will be questioning why they are seeing fewer opportunities this year but brands are still spending big. We have talent in both worlds and it’s something we’re paying close attention to. According to CORQ Studios research, the 3 key takeaways from 2023 were as follows (and what I think will continue in 2024):
Influencers using the wrong labels for adverts has increased 638% YOY.
Brands worked most with creators who have 100K-500K followers.
Generalists won most work but specialists drove most engagement.
✅ Sports: Live Sports is without a doubt still the most sought-after media rights in the world. It can revolutionise or kill a channel or streamer overnight. Sky Sports & TNT Sports recently won the most expensive rights sale ever for the Premier League rights at £6.7bn. Amazon Prime lost their package which is a major blow. DAZN once again picked up nothing which continues to stifle their positioning outside of the US. Warner Bros Discovery bought BT Sport, renamed it TNT Sports and packaged it up in a Discovery+ bundle. A seriously smart strategy which changes the entire paradigm of the streamer. For Sky, without the football, who knows where it would be? Sport in general is a major market where the right talent can thrive. This Summer the BBC airs the Paris Olympics, Wimbledon and Euro 2024 with ITV. From athletes to sports broadcasters to the plethora of access-all-areas docs, the opportunity to work in sports is at an all-time high. I see more sports rights moves for eye-watering money in 2024, lots more associated programming and, from a talent perspective, real opportunity.
✅ Gaming: The games market declined for the first time in over a decade in 2022. It recovered in 2023, and 2024 will see that upward curve grow. Gaming is a mega industry with huge money flying around for the right talent. Our gaming division continues to grow year-on-year and it’s an incredibly addictive world that we love being in. EA Sports FC has seen further user base growth which wasn’t a given with the breakaway from FIFA, and although the new GTA isn’t out until 2025 there is still enough excitement out there with the current version as well as COD and other games to keep this industry thriving. It’s a huge growth area - it mixes the very best of what grabs attention - entertainment, competition, unpredictability, live broadcasting and drama. To me, it’s unstoppable.
✅ AI: Of course. Truth is - who knows? It’s the one area that has more potential than anything else… but outside of ChatGPT and some niche endeavours, the entertainment industry is being highly cautious (slow!) about engaging fully. Other industries are going full steam ahead. Not here. Maybe this year there will be a breakthrough. For now, it’s a game of stick or twist… but when it lands, and it is inevitable, it’ll be a gold rush for whoever can get in early.
📥 I would love to hear from you. Any ideas, thoughts and feedback via alex@intertalentgroup.com are always most welcome.
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See you next time.
Alex